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Yield curve 101 The yield curve shows how much it costs the federal government to borrow money for a given amount of time, revealing the relationship between long and shortterm interest ratesBackground The yield curve—which measures the spread between the yields on short and longterm maturity bonds—is often used to predict recessions Description We use past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth to provide predictions of future GDP growth and the probability that the economy will fall into a recession over* On July 27, 04, Treasury sold a new longterm TIP security and expanded this table to include a year Real CMT rate The Year was discontinued at the November 09 Quarterly Refunding in favor of a 30Year TIP security Treasury Yield Curve Methodology The Treasury yield real curve is estimated daily using a cubic spline model Calafia Beach Pundit Gloomy Yield Curve Treasury yield curve chart today